In most years from 1970 to 2022, more people left Michigan than moved in.[43] The state may not be the most relevant unit of analysis, however. Its boundaries are political rather than economic. From 2010-2020, for example, Michigan townships in the southeastern portion of the state and around Grand Rapids and Traverse City showed considerable population growth, while much of the rest of the state slowly lost population.[44] It’s important to consider the role of cities in attracting in-migration. When selecting a location to live, many people compare metropolitan areas rather than states. They may look at the jobs and amenities available in a new city as they consider whether to move.
People tend to move less than they should, at least based on pure economic reasoning. “Americans are not leaving places hit by economic crises,” one researcher notes, “Resulting in unemployment rates and low wages that linger in these areas for decades. And people are not moving to rich regions where the highest wages are available.”[45] He blames a wide range of legal barriers to relocating. These policies range from differential taxes and benefit standards to zoning regulations and municipal bankruptcy structures. All tend to make it harder for residents to leave low-performing areas. Other researchers have identified custody laws as constraining domestic migration.[46]
This phenomenon may be hardening. Research has found a general decline in American geographic mobility. Internal migration peaked around 1980 and has since fallen. Some researchers attribute the decline to a decrease in job changing.[47]
One recent dramatic shift in urban trends is the shrinking of large cities that has occurred since the Covid-19 pandemic. Cities with more than 250,000 people had positive annual growth for the first two decades of the 21st century but that growth turned negative in 2020.[48] This was largely driven by out-migration. Suburban growth rates slowed during this time as well, so it appears that this was not simply a movement from city centers to the suburbs, but rather a move to more rural areas. Because telecommuting expanded during the pandemic, there is a real question of whether cities will return to their pre-pandemic growth paths.